Tuesday March 17th, 2009

OK, so now even I am getting the hint. Winter might be over.

Things seem to be happening fast this spring. We had a lot of warm weather and the snow got knocked down in sunny areas pretty fast. There is still base in the woods and a lot of snow, but days like today and yesterday are changing that fast. The river through the golf course in Lakewood opened up, but the Peshtigo still hasn't. Again, that will change shortly.

I expect that they are draining water out of the flowages about now to break up the ice and make room for the spring run off water in case it comes fast

Now that the snow has melted a little, gates are being closed on the trail system. Now the trails rest. Unless we get some miraculous weather in the next few days, the trails now sit for a month or so while the frost comes out of the ground. Usually they reopen the ATV trails the first weekend in May, but that can vary.

Brian E-mailed and asked about the North-South ATV connector trail, aka the Peshtigo River Connection Trail, and on LUVs, the two across ATVs. The last that I heard, they were still working on a way to get the trail through. The DNR pretty much refused to let a trail go through state park or forest land even though we were there requesting it since the earliest stages of planning of the park and forest, when it would have been prudent to plan for it.

 The next option is to go around them, and that will take the cooperation of the town and some land owners. That may come to be, I am not up on the latest and can only speculate. I will look into it.

As far as the two across ATV/LUVs (Light Utility Vehicles, John Deer Gator, Polaris Ranger etc..) on the trails, yes there is progress there. I am pretty sure that Marinette Co and some towns are experimenting with letting them ride trails and town roads.  I believe that Silver Cliff does permit them on town roads, but not the county highways. I will look into it and report back in a few days when I start updating the Scindex page.

There is more news to track down on the ATV front as well. There are new trails going into several county parks, the ATV campground at McClintock Park has been a big success, and there is now a new camping program for ATV camping in the county forest. Again I will track down details in the near future and report back.

Anyway, I really came today to say thank you. Special thanks goes out to Slug and the River Road Riders who have been very supportive. Likewise a lot of you really came through when I was in trouble early in the season. Thank you to all of you who supported me with your hard earned dollars.

Likewise I appreciate all of the people that came to Rapids and tried the place out or came to visit me. I understand that it sometimes came with bitter cold or breakdowns, and I appreciate the effort. 

The Rapids liked having me work there, and a lot of you liked the Rapids. The place is pretty fun in summer too with all of the rafters around.

Thank you very much to all of my friends of winter. You are greatly appreciated and I will miss you guys over the summer.

I would love to stay and chat but it is 60 degrees outside, and it is St. Patties Day. It is time to got a little outside time in.

In parting I will remind you that you can play in the snow one more time with spring rafting at Kosir's. The first trip of the year will be April 5th, and you can run it twice for the price of one trip.

Please join me as I do what I do here over at the Scindex page for the next eight months. I cover rafting, events, weather and yes some ATV news too.

Have a good year and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday, March 12, 2009

3pm

12:30 PM Update

Official word has come in from the Iron Snowshoe Trails that they have closed for the season.

We also have the following report from the River Road Riders:

Our trails are still open. Trails from Lake Noquebay to Wausaukee later today will be OK after the trail loosens up so you get some lube for the slides. Trail would be in spring like conditions and care should be taken while riding. Thinking while riding will go along way. Noquebay south are in poor condition. Any road riding will be on bare roads as no snow is in the forecast soon. Please check with other clubs before riding in their area as some have closed trails. You can also call the Chamber at 1 800 236 6681 for updated reports.

We will provide updates on other trail systems as they become available to us.

RJB

Thursday March 12th, 2008

Greetings and welcome!

It is another cold day outside, and I am off to be part of it. I will check in later today with my findings.

RJB





Wednesday March 11, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

Overnight Report

The storm was indeed a bust. There was no more snow here. The wind is now howling and making that roar in the treetops. Gusts have to be in the 30+ range, probably hitting 40 on occasion. It is blowing pretty good.

As usual we will see colder temps and some wind behind the storm. That is the outlook for today and to a lesser extent tomorrow. With the high pressure it will be a sunny couple of days.

Later today I will be looking at what it takes to get to some of those sheltered trails. I am having a hard time accepting that my last ride was the last of the season. It looked like a lot of places had ridable base and even nice trails, and I want to go and see about some of it.  Hopefully some of those long bare stretches between here and there are a little icy.

 I will return with more later..

RJB




Tuesday March 10th, 2009

Evening Update

So far  the storm is a disappointment. We had about an inch of snow this morning and just enough rain to knock it down since. The NWS says the snow should come later, but only and inch or two. Very disappointing.

RJB



Morning Report

Greetings and welcome!

We have a rain snow mix going on this morning. There are some big flakes, and sometimes it is more rain than snow. We are right on the line so what we do get will be heavy and wet.

 I made a run to Lakewood yesterday, and got a look at the trails. The ones in the woods and that were sheltered were holding a base. In some spots it was really nice. Some places were slushy, and some were bare.

The woods near Waubee Lake..




The RR Grade in Townsend..






The RR Grade in Lakewood




 
The snow today will be welcome if there us any chance of good trails for one more weekend.

The storm is a complex one, and a challenge to forecast. We are right on the line, and will probably see it switch to rain for a while this afternoon. Later it will hopefully bring a little more snow.

Behind the storm we are expecting some cold temps and high winds. After seeing temps above 30 for a while, highs in the upper teens and low 20s with some strong wind will feel pretty rude.

It is expected to warm back up for the weekend, and temps in the low 40 degree range should be the rule of the day.

We do have two events this weekend, Bucket Golf and a meat/prize raffle at Dockside, and a pan fishing derby on Waubee Lake at the Beach Club.

I will update a little later with the latest on the storm.

Thank you for visiting and have a good Tuesday!

RJB



Monday March 9th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

It was not a good weekend for a snowmobiler. Friday was a meltdown, Saturday got too warm, and Sunday's snow never came. Thankfully there were very few riders around.

At the moment we are teetering on the line between stick a fork in it and bouncing back to good trails with a decent snow. There is a lot of base left, but there is a lot of ugliness too. I am probably parked until we see snow. Things might be better elsewhere, I have not been too far out of Silver Cliff the past few days.

This morning is a sunny one and we are looking for a high between 33 & 38. Later it will get cloudy in advance of the next storm.

Tonight and tomorrow morning the NWS is looking for a mix of snow and freezing rain. Tuesday afternoon the forecast includes rain & thunderstorms and highs in the upper 30s. Tuesday night it is expected to go back to freezing rain and eventually snow.

This is a fairly complex and unusual scenario being shown in the forecasting models, but they have been very consistent with it.

A couple of interesting things that go with these projections.. One it will be a strong storm, and at that point there will be some strong  winds involved Tuesday night and Wednesday. Also noteworthy is the cold behind the storm with a high/low of 20/0 Wednesday and upper teens/5 Thursday. The normal high/low for Rhinelander is 35/12 for today.

That is about it from here this morning. I will return in the am and with storm updates as needed tomorrow. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB







Saturday March 7th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

I usually don't update on Saturdays, but today I should.

First of all, the forecast has changed. The NWS was looking for high 30s today, and I said that it would be colder.  As it turns out, it is 40 degrees already at 9:30am, and it will likely go 45.

Item two is that we have a winter storm watch out for Sunday. Apparently the Sunday/Sunday night storm could turn into a 3-6 or 4-8 snow producer. The TV said that there is even a chance of some thundersnow for whoever get lined up for the heart of the storm.

Monday might be the day for a last chance ride with the fresh snow and temps in the upper 30s. Apparently it is a short window, the Tuesday storm is now projected to go too far north, and possibly bring mid-40s and rain or thunderstorms.

I just checked the latest model runs, and I have my doubts. The GFS and NAM are now pushing the Sunday storm east and reducing our totals to insignificant accumulations.

On the Tuesday storm they do not agree. The NAM is showing it as clearly a rain event, with the rain/snow line both too far west and north for anywhere in WI to be spared the rain. The GFS is showing it close enough to start as rain and turn into a big snow event.

Chris walked to the mailbox a few minutes ago and reported that things had frozen up somewhat overnight. With the temps again rising, it is starting to melt, making icy spots very slick and treacherous.

I am not sure what to think of the Sunday snow. Right now the NWS is in with snow chances for Sunday at "Near 100%", but my stuff doesn't agree.  If the snow comes, Monday might be one of those 'Use your sick days wisely' days.

For now we have to wait and watch and see how it all works out. It could get interesting.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB



Friday March 6th, 2009

2:20pm- 51.8ºF & sunny

These pictures were taken between 1-1:30pm. I hit the close trail crossings here in Silver Cliff. My apologies to our friends on dial-up.



As you can see there are good spots, burnt spots, and sloppy spots. I couldn't take a picture of the driveway behind Rustic, there was a slow moving guy in the way. We will have to settle for an imaginary  Mr Yuk sticker on that one.

The idea here was to take as many crossing pictures as I could, and let you make the call armed with the latest info. It will be sloppier than this by the end of the day, the sun is out, it is 52, and there are 3.5 hours of daylight left.

Don't mistake my thoroughness for enthusiasm for the meltdown. It is much the opposite. The way I see it, this is when you need me the most, and while it sucks to be me today, it is where I earn all of those hugs and donations.

A lot of this should freeze up tonight when the temps are expected to go down to the 20 degree range. Saturday the NWS is looking for clouds and 38-43 ( I see it a little colder). Sunday they are looking for low 30s and a chance of snow.

There is still hope for next weekend. There is a big storm showing up for about Tuesday, and cold weather later in the week. No promises, but there is hope.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB








1:30pm- 50.4ºF- Pictures coming in a few minutes

10:30am- It is now 45.9 and rising with mixed sun and clouds. 

7:15am-38 degrees and cloudy/foggy, sun to come out later. Not good.


Overnight Report

Greetings and welcome!

It was another warm day Thursday, with some drizzle, and eventually some pretty heavy fog. The drizzle made an icy layer on top of the compact base and on some spots on roads.

Conditions for the weekend are very dependent on what happens today. If we see the NWS forecast of 45 & party cloudy later today, conditions will deteriorate quickly. 

Right now we have a good base in most areas. Plowed/treated roads and road shoulders are bare or close to it. Sunny spots on hillsides and corners are getting bad.

I have been bothered all day about the pictures that I put out Wednesday. They are representative of most of the trails, but they do not document the bad stuff as well as I think that they should.

 The Orlando Rd pictures were all the farther I got on the way back from Crivitz before the sunset. It took some Photoshop magic to make those come out.Take a cue off of the picture below and be aware that road shoulders and plowed areas are not so pretty.



I got word last night that some people have been going too fast on the road behind the Rustic. It is10mph for a reason. It has been the scene of some bad accidents, and the law requires a reduced speed when you are close to houses. Be aware that if problems continue, you may be zooming into a nest of DNR wardens, which gets really expensive. That is also a key piece of trail, and we do not want to see it go away.

The bottom line.. Would I ride right now? Yes, but I would be making faces on the 1/4 mile of bare road shoulder getting to the trails, and I would pick my spots carefully to avoid road trails. If I wasn't sick, I probably would have been out most of the day Thursday when temps were so comfortable.

The weekend weather remains in question. At the moment the forecast is for temps close to 40 and a chance of rain or snow Saturday. For Saturday most of the storm is expected to stay south of Green Bay. Sunday looks a little cooler, and there is what looks like a pretty good snow coming Sunday night.

Right now the big question is what happens with our 45 & sunny forecast for today. If it comes true or gets out of hand, conditions will go downhill fast. If the storm suddenly moves north and gives us a little snow, things would improve quickly with even a few inches.

I will update again later in the day. Have a great weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB




Thursday March 5th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

Yesterday ended up being a warm and sunny day.  I am sure that it hit at least 40. There was some melting going on, but it was mostly visible in sunny spots, along the road, and on sunny hillsides.  Today looks like it will be close to 40 again, but with a lot less sun, and maybe a little drizzle.

From what I saw between here and Crivitz, we still have good coverage and mostly good conditions. The snow is consolidating, and the trails are getting that stained look back again, and the usual sunny late season spots are there. Sunny plowed roads and road shoulders are not nice.

Here are some pictures from late yesterday afternoon.

From Crivitz next to the Family Dollar store..






From Hwy A at Orlando Road..







The weather outlook changed overnight, but it still is not ideal. The NWS is looking for low to mid-40s tomorrow, and my latest research supports that.

The storm for the weekend looks like it will be mostly pushed south. Right now my models are showing high pressure from the north pushing the bulk of the storm's energy south of the area. The rain snow line will still be a little north of here until Sunday according to the latest.

For Saturday the forecast is for mid to upper 30s and a chance of light rain, snow, or a mix. Sunday looks a few degrees cooler and the odds of the precip increase, along with the odds of it being snow.

Would I ride right now? Yes, but I would pick my spots to avoid stuff like the gravel road shoulder in the 3rd picture, and plowed sunny roads. Will it be good for the weekend>? Probably. We will have to see if the mid-40s happen tomorrow, how much rain we get, and how the forecast goes.

Unless we see some snow, it will be late season conditions with a lot of decent trail with some blemishes from the March warm and sun thing.

I will be on this tomorrow, and do my best to bring you the latest.

I am almost over my early week trip. I did an auto transport run with a guy seeking rust-free cars. We did just 1,900 miles in 44 hours, hitting Cleveland and Columbus Ohio, Indy, and almost down to Louisville. After that it was back up to Michigan and back across the Mackinac Bridge.

The Mackinac Bridge was probably the highpoint of it, along with getting to see Lower Michigan. It was two days of bad gas station food and sleep deprivation, but it was a fun adventure and a successful run. The worst thing that happened was the no sleep thing let the cold that I picked up over the weekend really get it's claws into me. This too will pass. I was happy to have a couple of days work, and it was an adventure.

Well I am off to get back to the daily challenges. I will update again tomorrow with the latest weather and trail reports.

Have a good Thursday and thank you for visiting!

RJB




Wednesday March 4th, 2009

Afternoon Update

As promised, here are some people pictures from the weekend..


































Thank you to all of you!

RJB


Early Report

Greetings and welcome!

I have returned from my great adventure and I am still working on getting back up to speed. I was doing an auto transport run with a friend, and returned late last night.

It was dark and I was tired, but from what I could tell last night, we still had good trails. I will be getting a better look later today.

I heard that Milwaukee had some interesting weather while I was gone, racking up a localized official total of 14.4" at the airport.

I also saw that the big global warming protest in DC was met by a  big snowstorm with high winds and brutal cold. Subsequently, there were gales of laughter from AGW skeptics. We saw the back of that storm in far northeastern Ohio during our travels. The wind was really howling, it was cold, and there were some pretty good snow squalls. It had to be ugly in DC.

We have some less than desirable weather coming up here too, and the weekend is a question mark.  It is going to be close to 40 today and probably mid-40s Thursday with some minor rain or drizzle. Friday the NWS is looking for low 40s. If the GFS version comes in, Friday could bring colder temps and some snow.

The storm for the weekend is a big question mark. That could go very well or get ugly. At the moment we are right on the line. Should that line move a little south, we would see some heavy snow Sunday and Monday.

There is also a noteworthy storm shown on the GFS for the middle of next week, followed by some deep cold that would hold the snow for the weekend. There is still hope for at least another weekend or two.

I will be going to Crivitz later and will get a better look at the trail conditions. I also have some people pictures from last weekend to post, and that is on the list for this morning.

I am off to get back up to speed on this stuff, and I will be back later today. Have a good morning and thank you for visiting!

RJB


Monday March 2nd, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

We had a great weekend in the Northwoods last weekend. Riders reported excellent trail conditions, and well patrolled trails last weekend. There were a lot of snowmobilers out and about, and a lot of people got some good miles in.

It was a fun weekend around Rapids too. We saw a lot of snowmobilers both Friday and Saturday, and many were web page visitors and old friends. There was also a huge group from the Firelane Poker run that was fun. If this was indeed our last weekend, the season went out with a good one.

A lot of you were not sold that the season is over. I like that. As it turns out, the weather forecast this week has moderated a little. There is still a warm spell expected late week, but both the warmth and the rainstorm for late week are a little less threatening than they were a few days ago. There is also a big storm shown for Saturday. That one is a dandy, and the rain/snow line is shown as being pretty close.

At the moment it is sub-zero and the trend for the next few days is cold. We can hope that it stays that way and the weekend will work out.  The two big challenges are the sun and the late week weather.  For now we will have to wait and see.

I am going to take a day off tomorrow, but expect to be back Wednesday. I have a couple of days of work out of town, and will be leaving in about an hour.  My apologies, but I will have to do the people pictures when I return.

Thank you to everyone this weekend!

 Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB




Friday February 27th, 2009

3pm

Greetings and Happy Friday!

We have a beautiful blanket of snow outside, and the excellent trail reports are coming in.  So far Near North and River Road Riders are posting good reports.  I'll add Silver Cliff to that list.

A glance at the two week GFS shows a big sunny thaw next week. If you are not riding this weekend you probably should be. All guidance indicates that Slug is probably right, the fat lady could be warming up for her big number. This easily could be the last weekend of great trails and system wide riding. We have a nice assortment of good events too.

As usual, I will be at the Rapids Resort Saturday bar tending, and Saturday night celebrating a great season and all of the really wonderful people that passed our way. There is a pretty good chance that I will be there tonight too.

I have some event updates..

First, the benefit ride at Chute Pond is this weekend, not last weekend.  Here is a link. There is also a fishing derby at Kathy's Valley Inn, and at the Breed Trap/Sportsman's Club. You need to register by tonight at Kathy's to get in on the derby, but there will be raffles and stuff going on for everyone.

The snow added up to about 5 here. The sun is out and is settling it as the day progresses. The county has plowed and salted roads, and the sun is helping to clear them. Chris has been to Crivitz and back in the mini-van, and travel conditions are improving.

Some folks have been asking about Waubee Lodge. Yes, they are closed. They had an ad in the paper that "Due to a weak economy, rising costs, and a decrease in sales, We have no other choice but to close Waubee Lodge at this time." They have not established a reopening date and thank everyone for their patronage.  

That is about it from here. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB



Thursday February 26th, 2009

10:30pm

The storm has now passed. The area saw a general 4-6", but there was a very heavy band that looked like the area south of here might have seem bigger totals. The radar showed that from about Lakewood south and east along 64 got hit with hard enough snow that the radar was yellow, and it stayed that way for a while. My guess is that Mountain over toward Coleman and Pound got hit pretty good. Farther south between there and Green Bay there were reports of thunder snow.

There have been closings running across the bottom of the TV, and one of them said that Marinette Co Roads were closed. Wow. They were advising people to stay put until the crews could get things cleared up. They will have their hands full with the southern end getting spanked along with the rest of the county getting moderate snow, plus blowing and drifting. They can clean a lot up pretty fast, and conditions should improve quickly tomorrow.

The storm was expected to bring more snow on the backside, but that literally evaporated. The storm drew in a lot of cold stable air, and the extra snow on the back of the storm vanished. That is why totals came in a little lower than some predictions.

There is a very nice new blanket of snow out there right now. Do plan on riding this weekend if you can. From what I am seeing in next week's forecast, things will be getting warm and sunny. There is a storm at the end of the week, but it is presently shown bringing rain, with a rain snow line well north of Lake Superior. There is a very real chance that this is last call for great trails. 

Speaking of last call, Friday night is expected to get cold. Usually we are done with most of the sub-zero stuff by late Feb, but here it is. The NWS is looking for -7 to -15 and some wind dragging down wind chills. Saturday and Sunday look nice with temps in the 20s, and a low of about 0 Saturday night. 

It is still pretty warm out, and I am going to go and pounce on that and plow the driveway a little. Mostly I am curious about snow totals beyond the back step..

Ride this weekend if you can.

RJB


6pm

The first couple of flakes came at about 3:30pm. It wasn't much. More impressive was how dark it was two hours before sunset. The air was damp and it was pretty obvious that things were about to start happening.

The snow has picked up with time since then. We have a couple of inches down now, and it is snowing and blowing like a real storm.  The radar is showing a long swath of heavy snow coming our way. it is all very exciting.

We can pretty much strike up the band and call it a good weekend for conditions. There is already enough down to cover bare spots and hide snirty areas.  The rest of the storm is gravy.

It is hard to guess what we will get. The way that it is snowing and the way the radar looks, 4- 6 is probable. So far a dry slot has not formed, and we are in some heavy stuff. Both will likely change, but not for a few hours.

So far so good..

RJB



Noon Update

So far so good. The storm seems on track and according to radar it is already snowing about 60 miles west of here. The rain/snow line might be close, but so far it looks like we will be in the heavy snow just north of it. Keep your fingers crossed!

RJB



Early Morning Report

Greetings and welcome!

As you can see from the above info, the weather outlook is pretty promising for a snowmobiler in these parts. The NWS regular forecast is looking for 3-5 today and 4-5 tonight for a 6-10 or 7-10 total. The part that scares me is the " Chance of snow near 100 percent." statement.

Everything seems to be on track for us to get a decent snowfall out of this storm. The guidance is favorable, and so is the radar.

I am a little skeptical about the totals going that high, but I am going to try to avoid being a buzz-kill this morning. I'll just say that I am trying to temper my enthusiasm and expectations to avoid being disappointed if it comes in an inch or two short of the high end of the range.

The storm yesterday was a disappointment. It did bring a little light snow here, but not the 1-3 or 2-4 earlier hoped for. South of Green Bay the bulk of the storm brought rain.

The prospects for excellent conditions for this weekend are very good at the moment. I'd feel better about it if it was snowing. For now we have to wait. The snow isn't expected to pick up until later in the afternoon.

I will stop back late morning if there are any weather updates, and again once the snow starts adding up.

Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB




Wednesday February 25th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

Chomp!

My travels yesterday were limited, but very enjoyable. There were some hills, corners, and trail edges in sunny spots that got thin or bare as a result of the warm and partly sunny day. Road trails varied from passable, to passable on the sides, to just say no.

The other 90% of my ride was just an absolute pleasure. There was a very nice base, a result of warm days, cold nights, and a solid effort by the groomers all coming together in a really nice result.

Today all eyes are on the sky and the pending storms. The one that was supposed to hit last night and today has so far disappointed. The radar shows that it snowed and drizzled, the ground outside has a different story. No matter.

The real story is the storm for tomorrow. At the moment it looks like it might be a good one. The NWS has a winter storm watch issued for much of WI. Here they are looking for 6-9 if it goes as expected. It might push farther north and give us a little more. Right now all guidance suggests that we will have a good sized storm out of it.

With highs in the upper teens on Friday, any snow that we do get should still be there for weekend riders. Temps over the weekend should be very nice, with a hi/lo of about 22/5.

I have a new event for this weekend. The Wheel Inn is having outhouse races and a chili cook off Saturday. The whole thing starts at about noon. The wheel Inn is about a dozen miles west of Crivitz, and just a little east of Caldron Falls Rd & W.

We have some promising weather, some good trails, and a rosy outlook for the weekend and the various events. I'm quittin' while I'm ahead.

Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB




Tuesday February 24th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

My travels yesterday took me around Silver Cliff and down to the Twin Bridge area. The trails that I saw along the road generally  looked good or very good. There was a thin spot in one area, but it always thin there.

On the way back I took Caldron Falls and Ranch Roads to see what those road trails were about. Most areas were passable, but some of the very sunny areas were burned off.  The sun is becoming a factor, at least on the roads.

We have some snow in the forecast. Early Wednesday a small disturbance should pass our way with a possible 1-3. That one looks pretty good, but it is a fast mover.

Thursday and Thursday night the one that we have been waiting for should come our way. There is a diversity of opinions among the models on the exact path of the storm. The GFS and NAM are taking the low pressure a little farther south than ideal. Several other models are showing it north consistently.

I am on board with the HPC's outlook of it going somewhere in between. Here is this morning's day 3 QPF. Our normal rain:snow ratio is about 1:12-16, and usually on the lower end of that. The QPF is always stated in rainfall equivalent.



As shown, our area would be in the first dark blue band, 0.5-0.75" of RFE. At a 12:1 that would be 6-9" of snow.

This one will be tough to call.The rain/snow line could come into play if it goes far enough north, and if it stays south, the precip on the north side of the storm drops off to a 1-3 or 3-6 scenario pretty quickly.

There are two schools of thought on this one. One says that the storms have been trending south, well, since last year, and will continue to do so. The other is the rubber band theory, that suggests that we are overdue, having not seen an 8" snowfall yet this winter.

The way that I see it right now, the first scenario is more likely. The HPC makes a reasoned argument, and I will put my guess out there that it will work out just a little short of what is shown above.

For now all that we can do is watch and wait.

Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB


Monday February 23rd, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

It is a bright and sunny morning this morning, but it is a cold one at about 8 degrees.

The weekend was a fun one. There were a lot of riders and friends around, and they were having fun. I think that we saw a lot more families around last weekend than I recall on previous weekends.

Your over the bar reports had trails mostly in pretty good shape, but some plowed roads were ugly. I also heard that the events were well attended, especially the Crooked Lake Fishorama.

As I rise this Monday morning, I actually have a pretty rosy outlook on the week ahead. I have some work to tackle, and then I have plans to put some more miles on the RXL. We even have a little snow in the forecast.  Lets start with that..

The first part of the week we are expecting a little sun as high pressure dominates our weather.  Temps should stay at or below 32, so the sun is what we will be watching the most. Wednesday a small disturbance is expected to come through and bring a 1-3 or 2-4 snow.

That should be followed up by a bigger storm for about Thursday. The GFS has that storm being pushed a little too far south and east  for my tastes, but there are a few days between now and then, so there is no panic about it. Forecasts change.

The bad news is that it is being shown as a minor storm for us, the good news is that the warm stuff and the rain/snow line is expected to be 200 miles south of here. I do expect that to change a little in the coming days, so stay tuned.

There are some good events coming up this weekend.  There is a radar Run on Lake Noquebay with the Crivitz Ski Cats. Also on Noquebay is a fishing derby with the Lake Noquebay Sportsmen's Society.

There are also a few rides coming up. The nice folks at the Dun-Good Riders are having their club ride taking off from High 8 this Saturday.

Our friends at Firelane Bar & Grill will be having a poker run Saturday. The events that way are usually a great time.  You will have to show up in person for the stories of past rides, but suffice it to say that usually they have a little fun.

Last but definitely not least, the NEW Low Buck Vintage Riders are having their Racer's to Pines Pinch. A pinch is a trail ride, and Racer's is a bar on Hwy W right by Wheel Inn. The Pines is a supper club on Crooked Lake.

When the NEW Low Buck folks go for a ride, it is a bit of a spectacle.  They have a lot of great old snowmobiles, and catching them at one end or the other or out on the trail is recommended. People on newer sleds are welcome to ride along, but they get to ride in the back of the line. The folks in the Low Buck Club are great, and their events are too. Catch this one if you can.

Some friends last weekend were telling me about encountering them on a previous ride, and it was so fun that they stuck around and got in on it. Check it out.

Well this is another carrot N stick week for me. If I work hard and get  my list done, I have the promise of getting in a decent bit of riding later in the week. With the promise of temps in the 30 degree range and snow mid-week I am very motivated. The sled is ready, the weather sounds nice, and thanks to the generosity of Tom & Jeannie, Steve & Dana, and Brad, I have a nice fuel budget too.

Unless something bad happens in the weather we should have a good weekend coming up. I want to encourage you to ride if you can. This is the last big weekend in snowmobiling related events other than the various after season banquets.  

After this the weather gets even more unpredictable, and March is pretty much a bonus round if you get to ride. Some years it is the best riding of the year, some years it is a drab sloppy melting mess. As the sun gets way too warm it becomes a considerable factor.

It is human nature to get used to the good things and expect them to keep coming. We have had a great season, with only two weekends questionable. Unfortunately that doesn't mean that we have 4 more weekends coming. In my mind, the first two weeks are a 50/50 proposition, and the second two can only happen id we get a big storm late week.

At the moment the two week forecast looks promising, but it is just a forecast. Ride while you can.

On that note, I am off to dive into life and swim after the carrot. Have a good week, and thank you for visiting. Also, thank you very much to the people that made last weekend so fun.

RJB


Friday February 29th, 2009

Afternoon Update

I did my morning run to Lakewood and Townsend and the trails along the way looked great. The groomers had been out, and the snow laid down very nicely.

It is becoming obvious that the sun is going to be a factor in the coming days. It was very comfortable outside in spite of the temps being in the mid-20s. The sun was doing a fine job of melting roads and parking lots where they had been treated.

As far as the trails that I saw, there were no sunburn spots. I did see two spots with a little minor staining, and a few high spots on sunny hills next to trails that were showing sun erosion. It is a non-issue for this weekend because the clouds are expected to move in later, along with some light snow in the wee hours. Today's sun should serve us by helping to increase the bond between the snow and base once it gets cold tonight.

It is that time of year where sun will be getting more and more  powerful with its melting as the days and weeks pass. When I checked sunset times last night, I found that we actually picked up 4 minutes of daylight today from yesterday. According to the NWS daily climate report, sunrise was 2 minutes earlier, and sunset two minutes later.

To show how dramatic the change is, I made up a little table..

It looks like we are headed right back into winter.

I made my Lakewood/Townsend Run this morning, and the trails looked pretty good. There were a few minor patches on the sides and high wear areas, but most of it was covered with an ice base and 1/4" of snow. Those trails will bounce right back if we get decent snow.

That is about it from here. I am headed out to the blue room to play and hopefully get at least one sled ready for the snow. I will be back in the morning with the latest weather updates.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!

RJB



Morning report

Greetings and happy Monday..

I have some pictures to share this morning, and an update on the weather.

I set up a gallery of pictures for SlugFeast and the Brat Fry and they are in one of the albums on the 2008-2009 people pictures gallery. Here is a link.. http://bigsnowpage.com/20082009pictures/thumbnails.php?album=4

Here are a few of them..



















It was a very fun weekend, thanks to all of you that made it that way..

The weather forecast is going our way at the moment. The GFS has us getting a decent piece of the Tuesday-Wednesday storm here. The NAM is coming around a little, but is still being a little stingy with the snow. Either way we win, but one is a little more generous. So far, so good.

I am off to dive into what looks like a full week.

Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!

RJB





Sunday February 15th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

The weekend was very fun. There were pretty many people around even though the trails were closed or in rough shape. Saturday we hit the brat fry with the Near North club over at Nimrod Inn, and then headed out to Slugfeast. We followed that up with a visit to Eagle Creek Pub & Rapids Resort.

It was great seeing so many people at the events, and it was great to see and meet so many of you. Thank you all so much. I will have some pictures coming soon. I need to figure out how to display that many, and it takes a little time to get them all sized and so on. No biggie.

We did have a little light snow Friday night and Saturday. The snow helped cover up the ugliness from the big thaw, and helped those that did take short rides. It also put a nice touch on the events Saturday, and made things more festive.

There is more snow in the forecast. Monday night into Tuesday there is a chance of some light snow adding up to an inch or three.

Tuesday night into Wednesday there is a southern storm possible. That one was tracking a little far south to help us in a big way up here, and models had the heavier snow from Green Bay south. Recent model runs have trended that north a little, so there is hope. Even if we don't get the brunt of the storm, hopefully we will still see some snow. The GFS is showing light to moderate snow on the back of the storm affecting us for a while, the NAM is less generous with it.

There is another small storm possible for Friday night into Saturday, followed by some cool (25/5) and clear weather Sunday.

Beyond that, the GFS has been fairly consistently showing a couple of good storms later in the month. It is a long term forecast, but it has been consistent, and I like what it says.

I liked how many of you that I spoke with are weather buffs. Most had pretty impressive knowledge levels. Cool. For those that want to learn more about cool weather stuff like caps and capes, advection, albedo, fetch, different levels of the atmosphere, and boundary layers, I found a helpful web site the other day. http://www.theweatherprediction.com . For the longer term, you might want to study up on the ENSO and PDO, two big influences on our short term climate, and to a lesser degree, the NAO.

For the curious, I am also studying stuff like the Volstok and Greenland ice cores, tree ring and sediment proxies relative to solar cycles and things like the Milankovitch and 1500 year cycles. Of particular interest are things like Dansgaard-Oeschger events and my favorite, the Younger Dryas Stadial.

At the moment we are experiencing a shrinking heliosphere, and a solar minimum between solar cycle 23 and 24. Wattsupwiththat.com and solarcycle24.com are frequent visits for stuff like that. Also look up the Maunder and Dalton minimums. They may be relevant soon.

What the heck, it is fun to learn and interesting stuff, and it keeps me out of the tavern.

For the locals...

Yes we can get over the air broadband Internet in Silver Cliff at a fair price finally. It works good. E-mail me if you are interested. If you need help, I can do wireless network installations and later this week will have wi-fi cards cheaper than at the store. I also do anti-virus installations cheaper than you can buy the software alone, and virus extractions when you waited too long.

We have a primary election coming up Tuesday. There are four candidates running for the Silver Cliff supervisor seat. I will refer you to the latest Silver Cliff Newsletter for candidate's position papers. There is also a primary for the state school superintendent that day. As we are finding out, elections have consequences, so please educate yourself and go and vote. 

Anyway, things are looking up in the weather. It is still just a forecast, and I don't believe it until I can roll in it, but I like what it says. If all goes well, we will be back on the trails next weekend with snow and decent weather too. You might want to check your carbides, we will have an icy base no matter what happens.

Unless we get a lot of snow, we will be looking at early season conditions. That might leave some gravel and plowed roads without the desired ice build up. Other than that we have decent ice base coverage in most areas, so the trails will bounce back with even a little snow.

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB